Why did the Sox of 2004 win a World Series and why are the Only-Team-In-ANY-Major-US-Sport-to-Blow-a-Three-Game-Playoff-Advantage-in-a-best-of-seven Yankees winning now?
Brutal 1-9 hitting with no (or very few) easy outs. (Because lets face it, I'm sure lots of Yankee fans expected to hit some HRs of Josh "Gopher" Beckett Saturday, but how many though it'd be the Corpse of Bernie Williams? )
There simply aren't enough high OBP, high P/PA folks on the FA market for the Sox to compete, hitting-wise with the Yankees next season (though we can always hope and pray for more of the older Yankee players to break down and have a rash of injuries that is statistically more likely as you get closer to mid-30s and 40.) But could there be an off-chance, fiscal possiblity of creating a dominating 1-5 of pitching?
This is long-shot, mostly talking out my ass thinking, mainly to see if any SoSH folks could run the numbers. Five true #1 starters probably isn't going to happen...but let's through another, hypothetical long-shot out there:
1. Schilling and Beckett stay on
2. A trade of two minor league hitting prospects (not both top prospects but likely one good PawSox guy) plus Lester, to the Astros for Roy Oswalt
3. Free agent: Jason Schmidt
4. Free agent: Barry Zito
Additional salary would have to be moved somehow to avoid Yankee-payroll levels, but one admittedly risky trade plus two (very) expensive but more-or-less safe free agent signings would give the Sox a pitching rotation of:
1. Schilling (playing for his legacy and wanting to go out on top)
2. Barry Zito (proven stuff for the AL, still fairly young and a lefty)
3. Jason Schmidt (power arm, possible injury risk due to age but still very good)
4. Roy Oswalt (multiple 20-game winner)
5. Josh Beckett (easily an ace if he gets the HRs under control).
The downside is the total cost for this 5-man rotation could be 60-70 million. But that's still a good bit less than the Yankee infield alone. The way to beat the Yankees is to out pitch them at this point...as the Yankee fan below pointed out (with perhaps too much pride) here's the Yankees rotation:
1. Mussina (not getting any younger, and his post ASB return to his higher career numbers mean any talk of him competing with Santanas of the world for a Cy Young are gone).
2. Wang (great young pitcher, not exactly lights out vs. the Sox, and some of us still think that his high groundball/low strikeout ratio will bite him in the ass one day. Especially with Bronze Glove A-Rod playing D. Add in the potential visage of Sheffroid playing 1st next season and that lineup may have to average 8+ runs to offset the defensive misery on the field.)
3. Randy Johnson. A few weeks ago the Yankee fans said he was old and cooked. Add another year to him.
4-5: Who? Getting Schmidt and Zito means they don't wind up in pinstripes.
So...can this (or part of it anyway) be done?
And will Theo and co. do it?
Sunday, August 20, 2006
Saturday, August 19, 2006
Poke 'em with a fork, they're almost done
So how has Theo Epstein gone from "Boy Genius" GM to "Grown-ass Man That Inexplicably Thinks Jason Johnson Can Pitch" GM in less than year?
2004.
If not for that WS title and triumph over the Yankees we fans would've seen what a dunderheaded move it was to let Pedro (THE best pitcher the Red Sox have ever had--including Clemens) go and, worse, how pretty much every trade or move related to pitching has sucked since then. Seriously, when David Wells has been your best pitcher brought in, something's gone very wrong.
Since Pedro was allowed to walk to Queens here's what Theo and co. have brought in to help Wake and Schill:
Matt Clement--sucks, also seemingly has a similar nancy-boy temperment like A-Rod's.
David Wells--pretty good when healthy, but at 43 and not exactly a shoo-in for a Men's Health cover, isn't often enough
(_____)--No starters were brought in for 2006, but with Arroyo and Papelbon as possible starters, who needs an extra starter? (*cue ominous music, hit Theo on the head for not talking the Reds into somehow taking Clement instead of Arroyo for Wily Mo*)
Jason Johnson--sucks. Only good thing about the kid was the brief moment of immature laughter at a Wang vs. Johnson game.
Kyle Synder--occasionally servicable out of the bullpin; sucks as as starter.
I won't even talk about the 'pen.
And Josh Beckett ain't ready for prime time.
2007 is Schilling's last season (probably...if he comes back, don't expect Clemens-type stuff in 2008). Beckett hasn't proved worthy as a #2 yet, and the reason the Sox are looking like a team that will be watching the playoffs on tv isn't just the bullpen.
Lester merely prolonged the inevitable, but he's not ready to be a #3 or even 4 starter. But when Tim Wakefield went on the DL that's what happened. The Sox then get really shitty guys struggling to go 5 innings every 5 days twice (#4 and #5 before Wells came back and got his "crap start back from the DL" out of the way) and the bullpen gets worn out. It's not helped by Beckett's inconsistantcy (when he wins, he's often great...when he loses, like the 8-walk day today, you really notice the shittiness).
So fuck it...if this is the season, and if this weekend is the dulled echo of '78's visit from the free-spending ass haberdashers from the Bronx, the front office needs to plan ahead.
Use EST if you have to, but convice Theo that Youk hits leadoff, not Coco. Wily Mo Pena (or in a pinch, Hinske or Mike Lowell) bats 5th. Give the good minor-leaguers some playing time. If Pedroia is ready to take over for Loretta next season, play him.
Then get better in the offseason, and any young pitcher not named Papelbon should be allowed as trade bait. Are Delcarmen, Hansen and Lester good? Sure. But if the team can sign Barry Zito and then use the younguns to trade for Andrew Jones (maybe Lester+Hansen+Crisp for Jones) a free agent middle-of the road starter and reliever can replace their likely production.
You then get a starting rotation of:
Schilling
Zito
Beckett
Wakefield
Clement or random mystery #5 starter
and a potential lineup of:
Youks
Pedroia
Ortiz
Rameriz
Jones
Pena
Hinskie
Varitek
Gonzalez
And if the contracts of Tavarez, Nixon and Clement (as well as Lowell) can be moved, new bullpen arms (and possibly an upgrade at SS) are possible.
$130 million should be better than a team that outside of Manny and Papi is inconsistant and streak at hitting and has no starting pitching depth and a depleted bullpen.
At the very least can someone plunk a Yankee hitter in the ass? Pedro would've done it.
2004.
If not for that WS title and triumph over the Yankees we fans would've seen what a dunderheaded move it was to let Pedro (THE best pitcher the Red Sox have ever had--including Clemens) go and, worse, how pretty much every trade or move related to pitching has sucked since then. Seriously, when David Wells has been your best pitcher brought in, something's gone very wrong.
Since Pedro was allowed to walk to Queens here's what Theo and co. have brought in to help Wake and Schill:
Matt Clement--sucks, also seemingly has a similar nancy-boy temperment like A-Rod's.
David Wells--pretty good when healthy, but at 43 and not exactly a shoo-in for a Men's Health cover, isn't often enough
(_____)--No starters were brought in for 2006, but with Arroyo and Papelbon as possible starters, who needs an extra starter? (*cue ominous music, hit Theo on the head for not talking the Reds into somehow taking Clement instead of Arroyo for Wily Mo*)
Jason Johnson--sucks. Only good thing about the kid was the brief moment of immature laughter at a Wang vs. Johnson game.
Kyle Synder--occasionally servicable out of the bullpin; sucks as as starter.
I won't even talk about the 'pen.
And Josh Beckett ain't ready for prime time.
2007 is Schilling's last season (probably...if he comes back, don't expect Clemens-type stuff in 2008). Beckett hasn't proved worthy as a #2 yet, and the reason the Sox are looking like a team that will be watching the playoffs on tv isn't just the bullpen.
Lester merely prolonged the inevitable, but he's not ready to be a #3 or even 4 starter. But when Tim Wakefield went on the DL that's what happened. The Sox then get really shitty guys struggling to go 5 innings every 5 days twice (#4 and #5 before Wells came back and got his "crap start back from the DL" out of the way) and the bullpen gets worn out. It's not helped by Beckett's inconsistantcy (when he wins, he's often great...when he loses, like the 8-walk day today, you really notice the shittiness).
So fuck it...if this is the season, and if this weekend is the dulled echo of '78's visit from the free-spending ass haberdashers from the Bronx, the front office needs to plan ahead.
Use EST if you have to, but convice Theo that Youk hits leadoff, not Coco. Wily Mo Pena (or in a pinch, Hinske or Mike Lowell) bats 5th. Give the good minor-leaguers some playing time. If Pedroia is ready to take over for Loretta next season, play him.
Then get better in the offseason, and any young pitcher not named Papelbon should be allowed as trade bait. Are Delcarmen, Hansen and Lester good? Sure. But if the team can sign Barry Zito and then use the younguns to trade for Andrew Jones (maybe Lester+Hansen+Crisp for Jones) a free agent middle-of the road starter and reliever can replace their likely production.
You then get a starting rotation of:
Schilling
Zito
Beckett
Wakefield
Clement or random mystery #5 starter
and a potential lineup of:
Youks
Pedroia
Ortiz
Rameriz
Jones
Pena
Hinskie
Varitek
Gonzalez
And if the contracts of Tavarez, Nixon and Clement (as well as Lowell) can be moved, new bullpen arms (and possibly an upgrade at SS) are possible.
$130 million should be better than a team that outside of Manny and Papi is inconsistant and streak at hitting and has no starting pitching depth and a depleted bullpen.
At the very least can someone plunk a Yankee hitter in the ass? Pedro would've done it.
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